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Ukraine's War Of Independence, Vol. III

www.polemology.net

Ukraine's War Of Independence, Vol. III

An annotated link post

Matt Osborne
Jan 29
3
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Ukraine's War Of Independence, Vol. III

www.polemology.net

This is the third annotated link post of my analysis of the war in Ukraine covering events since the end of the Battle of Kherson. Volume I is here. Volume II is here.

23 November 2022. After you have been high on your own supply for long enough, quitting cold turkey is hard. For some hardcore addicts, it is too hard.

Polemology Positions
A Kübler-Ross Interpretation Of This Russian Propagandist Contemplating Defeat
Vladimir Solovyov, aka the evil Max Headroom, is an algorithmic personality. If an artificial intelligence program learned to mimic a fire-breathing propagandist, it would be Vladimir Solovyov. Given his penchant for breaking world records as a live newscaster, I would not be surprised to learn he is in fact a cyborg, or even a digital studio projection…
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4 months ago · 5 likes · Matt Osborne

2 December 2022. Perhaps the most surprising finding in the report is the deep vulnerability of Russian forces to deception campaigns as long as they are not subtle. Ukraine had to telegraph their Kherson offensive for months to stimulate a response in Moscow.

Polemology Positions
Lessons From The Spectrum War In Ukraine
Although Russia deployed lots of electronic warfare equipment designed to make western precision guided munitions less accurate, “direct jamming against precision systems was rarely effective” once Ukraine began to use them. That’s one of the conclusions in a new report…
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4 months ago · 1 like · Matt Osborne

9 December 2022. Cannons are hungry, like dragons. Either feed the guns or watch them eat your whole kingdom.

Polemology Positions
Putin Asked Santa For A Donbas Christmas Gift But He Should Prepare For Disappointment
If Russian troops have not taken Bakhmut by Christmas morning, they never will. Sadness shall instead stalk the halls of the Kremlin. Oh Santa, Vladimir Putin will blubber. Why did you not give me Bakhmut? I was a good boy all year, cleansing the earth of Ukraine, yet still my stocking remains empty of candy and nuts…
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4 months ago · 2 likes · Matt Osborne

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20 December 2022. The misfortune of being alive in Vladimir Putin’s Russia is that one cannot name the problem. Should the man at the top lose his grip, or die in place, this generation of veterans will likely turn on Putin, or at least his reputation, with white-hot fury.

Polemology Positions
Russian Volunteer: 'This Level Of Military Incompetence Simply Does Not Exist'
“There is a huge, massive betrayal, and systematic preparation for a completely hellish massacre during the next Ukrainian offensive. The Russian army, and its command leave no chance of success.” Murz, a Russian volunteer at the f…
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3 months ago · 4 likes · 3 comments · Matt Osborne

29 December 2022. I am only suggesting that Ukrainians are human beings. This will be shocking to some people, I realize. They can cope, however, because they are humans too.

Polemology Positions
Maybe Ukraine Is Shooting Russian Missiles Back At Russian Targets?
I avoid doing hot takes on hot wars because even a few hours of information and conversation can change our understanding of an event. Propaganda infuses the news cycle. Errors in reporting can escape the best editorial curation. Better to hold speculations open as events provide additional evide…
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3 months ago · 1 like · Matt Osborne

4 January 2023. Russian forces are being degraded over time, but not because they are untrainable. The trainers — the experienced staff — are dead, and the new staff are being taught on the fly, with a book of rules written before last July.

Polemology Positions
'Our Generals Are Untrainable': A Winter Degradation By Fire For Russian Forces
Buildings filled with Russians have been exploding in occupied parts of Ukraine for longer than Russians realize, according to Igor Girkin. Reacting to the HIMARS strike on a Russian barracks at Makiivka three days ago which reputedly killed as many as 600 Russian troops, Girkin…
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3 months ago · 2 likes · Matt Osborne

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19 January 2023. Whatever decision Putin arrives at now on mobilization, he is a year late and a few rubles short to catch up with the quality of the force that Ukraine will field during 2023.

Polemology Positions
On Human Waves And Mobilization Waves
The bulge in the “control lines” around Soledar is smaller than the range of any substantial artillery weapon and enfiladed by fire from three directions. To attack outwards from Soledar in any direction requires going uphill. No hiding places are left in the town. Russians huddle in buildings shattered by month…
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2 months ago · 1 like · Matt Osborne

20 January 2023. Although similar in function, the Leopard 2 and the M1 Abrams are distinctive enough in design that the same expert would understand they came from different organizing societies.

Polemology Positions
On Mobilization Waves And A Military Mindset
Politico sought fit to bury this quote from Colin Kahl, undersecretary of Pentagon policy, at the bottom of their inverted pyramid-style story about Germany slow-walking Leopard tanks for Ukraine. “The Abrams tank is a very complicated piece of equipment. It’s expensive, it’s hard to train on. It has a jet engine, I think it’s a…
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2 months ago · 2 likes · Matt Osborne

25 January 2023. In the manner of a self-fulfilling prophecy, Putin is creating the very monster he supposedly sought to prevent.

Polemology Positions
2023: Year Of The Leopard
The UAF will receive Leopard 2 main battle tanks. Having weathered a warm winter, the German government is ready to get serious about helping Ukraine win, this year. Ukraine will receive M1 Abrams main battle tanks, too. Having weathered the political headwinds of a midterm election, the American president is ready to get serious about helping Ukraine w…
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2 months ago · 4 likes · Matt Osborne

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27 January 2023. The evident plan in Moscow is to fill the space between ambition and reality with hundreds of thousands of dead Russians. Extend that out to 2025 and we have a grim, but realistic, picture of the potential future.

Polemology Positions
2025: Year Of The Armata?
The UK Ministry of Defense says that although Russia is likely to introduce its new main battle tank in Ukraine, the T-14 is only going to arrive in “limited numbers.” Urlavagonzavod, the manufacturer of the Armata (lit. “armada”) remains “dogged with delays, reduction in planned fleet size, and reports of ma…
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2 months ago · Matt Osborne

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Ukraine's War Of Independence, Vol. III

www.polemology.net
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