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Ukraine's War of Independence, Vol. II

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Ukraine's War of Independence, Vol. II

Annotated link post: Sep-Nov 2022

Matt Osborne
Nov 20, 2022
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Ukraine's War of Independence, Vol. II

www.polemology.net

This is an annotated link post of my open source analysis of the war in Ukraine since Vladimir Putin issued his mobilization decree. Volume I, covering February to September, is included at the bottom. Volume II is now closed to reflect that the Battle of Kherson has ended and a new, winter phase of the war has begun in earnest.

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24 September. Putin wanted the war to be over by now. He would like it to not be news anymore, since it is not going well. Now that manpower shortages have forced him to mobilize Russian society, it is impossible to remove Ukraine from the news. It is the news. There is no other news in Russia, anymore.

Polemology Positions
Russian Stealth Mobilization Already A Disaster
Vladimir Putin is trying to mobilize a demobilized population. That sentence makes exactly as much sense as Putin’s mobilization decree. Schizoid policy and secret clauses and utter confusion reign. Conscripts are aimless and drunk. Training rifles are rusted. Cities are wracked by antiwar protests. Every male of fighting age who can afford to leave is …
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6 months ago · 2 likes · 2 comments · Matt Osborne

26 September. Although the videos coming from Dagestan are certainly inspiring, Putin’s mobilization decree is unlikely to cause a split or a violent rebellion. Battlefield defeats will happen before that happens.

Polemology Positions
Dagestan is Russia. Civil War Is Unlikely
I have been seeing the flag of the Republic of Dagestan bouncing around social media for the last few days. Anti-conscription riots there are raising expectations that the republic might quit Russia to become independent. This is unlikely, however, because Dagestan’s economy and security are entirely dependent on the Russian center. Peace is the norm in…
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6 months ago · 1 like · Matt Osborne

6 October. Military observers have scratched their heads about this seeming futility, but the violent ambitions of Yevgeny Prigozhin are an elegant explanation.

Polemology Positions
'Putin's Chef' And The Meat-Grinder Of Bakhmut
Vladimir Putin is a dangerous man. However, Russian opposition activist Leonid Volkov has called Yevgeny Prigozhin “the most dangerous criminal in Putin’s entourage.” A lifelong gangster, Prigozhin got his start in prison, then made a killing in the St. Petersburg restaurant catering business…
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6 months ago · Matt Osborne

7 October. Electromagnetic spectrum operations (EMSO) is a distinct domain of weaponry that can be supplied to Ukraine with less risk than tanks or missiles or planes while still providing a vital force multiplier for those systems that Ukraine already has. Since the invasion resumed in February, otherwise-reluctant partners have waged a quiet, but important electromagnetic proxy war with Russia.

Polemology Positions
Security Partners Quietly Up-Arm Ukraine For Spectrum Dominance
Desperately short of drones, Vladimir Putin turned to Iran for help. Teheran has supplied hundreds of unmanned aerial platforms, but only to limited effect. According to Oleksii Reznikov, Minister of Defense, the Ukrainian Air Force has neutralized “suicide drones” like Shahid-136 (see above) using…
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6 months ago · 1 like · Matt Osborne

8 October. Given how thin Russian forces are stretched now, it makes sense for Kyiv to try another offensive. If they succeed, they can spend the whole winter picking Russian forces apart in Crimea to set the stage for victory.

Polemology Positions
The Siege Of Crimea Opens With A Spectacular Kerch Strait Bridge Strike
Speculations are unnecessary. This one, you can blame on the Ukrainians. For his birthday, Vladimir Putin received a gift from the same clandestine servants who keep making things go boom in Crimea. This time, it was a train of tanker cars. Because some bulk liquids are prone to go boom with catastrophic results at the least excuse, a fuel train parked …
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6 months ago · 3 likes · Matt Osborne

14 October. As predicted by many oberservers, including this writer, Russian mobilization came far too late and has been much too disorganized to succeed in generating the level of combat power necessary to stop Ukraine.

Polemology Positions
'Digging With Bayonets': Russian Mobilization Is Too Little, Too Late To Save Kherson
Russian men mobilized since the end of September are already being killed, wounded, and captured in Kherson, a herald of defeat. According to the BBC, which obtained a recording of a mobilized man from Chelyabinsk calling home after being wounded, conscripted Russians have been forced to dig their trenches with bayonet…
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5 months ago · 2 likes · Matt Osborne

20 October. Looming defeat in Kherson Oblast has been a topic of open discussion on Telegram and is now accepted as a matter of course on Russian television. Defeat is totally normal in Kherson, already, and therefore no threat to the regime, or to Putin’s power.

Polemology Positions
The Freeze Play Is On In Kherson
“General Winter” favors the prepared. When this Friday night turns into Saturday morning, the overnight temperature in Kherson City is forecast to be less than 3 degrees Celsius (37 Fahrenheit), according to Google. Local conditions will remain rather cold for a week, and some rain is expected. Any improvements in the weather between now and March 2023 …
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5 months ago · Matt Osborne

27 October. The Wagner Line is a visual showcase of Prigozhin himself — a form of nonverbal communication with Russians, a totem of his resolve to carry on with Vladimir Putin’s Russianizing project in Ukraine, come what may.

Polemology Positions
Land Art And The Reputation Management Of Mercenary Mafioso Yevgeny Prigozhin
Imitating the very best tradition of Potemkin’s fabled villages, Yevgeny Prigozhin has put precious wartime resources into this combat engineering fraud. Effective “dragon’s teeth” are buried under the ground so that less than half the structure is exposed. Those concrete pyramids are worse th…
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5 months ago · 1 like · Matt Osborne

9 November. One day after midterm elections in the United States failed to produce a strong antiwar party in Congress, Russia has announced withdrawal of forces from the right bank of the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast.

Polemology Positions
Ukraine Has Won The Battle Of Kherson
Watch now (2 min) | One day after midterm elections in the United States failed to produce a strong antiwar party in Congress, Russia has announced withdrawal of forces from the right bank of the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast. Reacting to the video release, a Zelenskyy advisor indicated that Kyiv remains cautious and there is still fighting in Kherson…
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5 months ago · 3 likes · Matt Osborne

Polemology Positions
Ukraine's War of Independence, Vol. I
This is a compendium of my open source analysis of the ongoing war in Ukraine from the first day of the renewed invasion to the point of Russian general mobilization. 24 February: For all his power as an autocrat, Putin senses his opportunity to reclaim Ukraine in the name of Russian nationalism slipping away. Perhaps he really has a wasting disease, as …
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a year ago · 3 likes · Matt Osborne

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