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Ukraine's War of Independence, Vol. I

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Ukraine's War of Independence, Vol. I

Annotated link post Feb-Sep 2022

Matt Osborne
Mar 7, 2022
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Ukraine's War of Independence, Vol. I

www.polemology.net

This is a compendium of my open source analysis of the ongoing war in Ukraine from the first day of the renewed invasion to the point of Russian general mobilization.

24 February: For all his power as an autocrat, Putin senses his opportunity to reclaim Ukraine in the name of Russian nationalism slipping away. Perhaps he really has a wasting disease, as rumored. Or perhaps he really is messianic about his Orthodox zeal to reunite the Ukrainian church with the Russian one, a kind of holy divorce of churches that has gone under the radar of most western observers. Putin probably would love to be a hallowed saint and icon. His strategic vision has more in common with the Tsars than the Soviets, who stuffed their saints and put them on gruesome display. To be clear, I don’t think that Putin has quite become an irrational actor. His rationale is merely obscure to everyone not named Vladimir Putin; he keeps his own counsel.

Polemology Positions
Ukraine Against The Storm
The first 24 hours of Russian combat operations did not see uniform success along the extended front of advance. Ukrainian forces have achieved decisive local victories in defense of Russian objectives. Russian armor now occupies the Chernobyl exclusion zone after Ukrainian forces made no defense of it. Clearly, the plan in Kyiv seems to be that Russian…
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a year ago · 3 likes · Matt Osborne

26 February: Ukraine claimed Saturday morning that their forces have already destroyed the equivalent of a Russian mechanized brigade’s worth of tanks and other armored vehicles. At even half that rate of attrition, Putin will break his army quickly, and at that rate he will have no army at all in a matter of weeks. This is not sustainable.

Polemology Positions
The Lights Are Still On In Kyiv
I did not think that Vladimir Putin was dumb enough to send armored units into urban areas against advanced antitank weapons and Molotov cocktails. I stand corrected. Ukraine claimed Saturday morning that their forces have already destroyed the equivalent of a Russian mechanized brigade’s worth of tanks and other armored vehicles. At even half that rate…
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a year ago · 3 likes · 2 comments · Matt Osborne

27 February: How is life in the Kremlin bunker, now? How many officers are exchanging anxious glances in the Russian strategic nuclear command system? What steps are they taking to walk back their supreme leader from the brink? Is anyone making up a Plan B, or hastily arranging backup plans of any kind? We have to ask ourselves these questions now. That is the new world that Ukraine’s brave defense has made. On Day Four of Putin’s offensive, he had to arrange a cease-fire because his army can’t seem to fight anymore.

Polemology Positions
The Mental Siege of Vladimir Putin
The military record of former KGB spy turned autocrat Vladimir Putin has four major bullet points. Now that he has put Russian nuclear forces on alert, we must all hope he does not add a fifth, and that peace talks on the Belorussian border produce a swift end to hostilities…
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a year ago · 3 likes · Matt Osborne

2 March: It didn’t have to be this way, of course. Putin could have made better choices in the last 23 years. Here are FIVE changes that might have saved thousands of Russian lives and reduced the length of this war.

Polemology Positions
Maybe Putin is Just Bad at War?
Training as a KGB lawyer was a great way to get to the top in Yuri Andropov’s Soviet Union. As the USSR broke up, a KGB lawyer was exactly the right person to grasp power in a chaotic environment, and no one appreciated this gesture more than the exhausted Russian people. It is seldom remarked that the KGB was also one of the few organizations in the So…
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a year ago · 1 like · 3 comments · Matt Osborne

4 March: Now, one may argue that all military equipment is built by the lowest bidder, and that is exactly my point: someone in Russia lined their own pockets by purchasing dubious discount tires with the aid of a Russian general, in fact several generals. Putin’s mafia state is corrupt to the core because there is no check on corruption. It is corruption. Russia has no Congressional committees to meet and urgently discuss tire procurement, no free press to raise alarms and spur action, no accountability for fraud, waste, or abuse. It shows.

Polemology Positions
Maybe Putin's Russia is Bad at War?
The first time Stalin tried to invade Finland, he got embarrassed. Badly. Historians of Soviet military history often relish the absolute comparative spanking that a tiny Finland inflicted on the ginormous Red Army. To me, failure is far more interesting than success, and the “Winter War” is a particularly delicious example of huge military failure. Eve…
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a year ago · Matt Osborne

5 March: Although they operate at a standoff distance, well away from harm, American E-2D Hawkeyes can still “see” over the borders into Russia and Belarus. Keep this in mind, because it is what makes this perhaps the most powerful warplane you know nothing about. It is like a superpower. Just one of these airplanes can potentially destroy whole Russian air regiments.

Polemology Positions
Maybe Ukraine Doesn't Need A NATO No-Fly Zone Because They Already Have One?
The USS Harry S. Truman is operating in the Adriatic. The ship’s Twitter account recently posted this photo of a powerful new E-2D Hawkeye. These planes have the range to make a round trip from the ship’s catapults to Kyiv. With some NATO refueling aircraft and secure strips in Romania or Poland in case of emergency, one US Navy carrier can keep a small…
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a year ago · Matt Osborne

6 March: “Territory” is not progress. The capture of Kyiv after a massive battle will not make Ukrainians stop fighting. Ukraine will not be defeated as long as they have the will to fight. Russia has failed to break their will, indeed the Ukrainian people are more defiant than ever.

Polemology Positions
How to Break a Russian Offensive
Every Ukrainian city is a potential First Battle of Grozny for Russian armor. The campaign to stop Chechnya breaking away in the winter of 1994-1995 started out as a disaster. The Russian Army was forced to pause and reorganize with new tactics after heavy losses. It was especially embarrassing that their most advanced tanks were sitting ducks in the cl…
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a year ago · Matt Osborne

8 March: Concerns that NATO intervention actually might bring on global thermonuclear war are not entirely irrational. If the chances of that result are even one in a thousand, would you risk it? Be glad that Russian nuclear force control is a distributed responsibility, unlike the American system.

Polemology Positions
Is Putin High On His Own Supply?
Those weird, swastikaesque Zs painted on all those destroyed Russian vehicles are evidence of a disturbing nationalist bent. What is Vladimir Putin thinking? Almost two weeks into his invasion of Ukraine, the Russian army has suffered tremendous losses and their offensives have all stalled or been repelled. The window of opportunity to conquer Kyiv with…
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a year ago · 1 like · 1 comment · Matt Osborne

12 March. Open source analysts are reporting that Ukraine has successfully trapped a Russian army northwest of Kyiv. Made possible by deft use of regional flood controls, this would be the greatest defeat of Russian arms in over a century, if true.

Polemology Positions
Defeat Doctrine and the Last Resort to Madness
Open source analysts are reporting that Ukraine has successfully trapped a Russian army northwest of Kyiv. Made possible by deft use of regional flood controls, this would be the greatest defeat of Russian arms in over a century, if true. Rissia skeptics are triumphant already; indeed Francis Fukuyama is practically…
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a year ago · Matt Osborne

17 March. Until Russians are allowed to think of themselves as a nation instead of an empire, violence will always emanate from the Russian center, and it will continue to be a problem for the whole world.

Polemology Positions
Russia vs The World, 1904-Present?
Modern spying was invented during the ‘Great Game’ between Britain and Russia for control of Central Asia in the late 19th Century. Celebrated as the model for Ian Fleming’s famous spy James Bond, Sidney Riley thrived in these margins of conflict. He secretly surveyed Caucasian oil production, led an effort to install a friendly government in 1919 durin…
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a year ago · Matt Osborne

18 March. Viewed as an electromagnetic event, the war in Ukraine has been one-sided and unfair, which is exactly the point of electronic attack. This invisible force multiplier is playing a key role in the ongoing defeat of Russian formations.

Polemology Positions
The Thornbush Is In Bloom: Crowdsourced Spectrum Dominance in Ukraine
When Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy began tweeting video challenges from Kyiv, cocky and winking at the camera, it struck me as more than an audacious act. As long as Russian columns were stuck to the roads in spring mud, pushing forward with maximal useless destruction at the end of their logistical tether, they remained vulnerable to flanking…
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a year ago · Matt Osborne

20 March. Putin is not insane. Nuclear or chemical weapons would absolutely provoke NATO intervention, which would be insane. As long as the west reclines, performing the Cold War rather than waging it directly, Putin’s worst threats remain hollow. Each time Ukraine destroys another Russian division and Putin doesn’t use a nuke, the threat loses its power to terrify anyone.

Polemology Positions
Putin Digs Deep for a Potemkin Victory
Is Ukraine allowed to win? Victory conditions are intrinsic to ending conflict. Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy both need peace, but each is pursuing different conditions to that eventual end of hostilities. Call it “game theory” or choose a better buzzword if you want. War is a social event that can only end through some form of mutual agreement…
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a year ago · Matt Osborne

25 March. Ukrainians cannot be allowed to think of themselves as Ukrainians instead of Russians. It hurts Putin too much. But this is a problematic goal for a Russian army. To paraphrase Alan Moore’s antihero V, the idea of Ukraine cannot be destroyed by bullets or bombs or rockets or shells. As long as the idea of Ukraine exists, every city and town is an anthill of resistance.

Polemology Positions
Putin Cannot Kill The Idea Of Ukraine
It looks worse than it is. Amateur historian Vladimir Putin has ignored the totality of urban warfare developments in the modern period. Although his bombardment is destructive, it is disconnected from any military objective that might defeat Ukraine. Moral suasion through large amounts of high explosives delivered by airplane or artillery has turned out…
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a year ago · Matt Osborne

3 April. Putin calls the mass graves “de-Nazification.” International law calls them “war crimes.” Europe will call it an emergency. Breaking Russian armies is now a moral imperative.

Polemology Positions
The Russian Army Has To Be Destroyed
Ukraine has won the battle of Kyiv. After weeks of heavy losses from a determined defense, Russian forces were finally forced out of exurban zones around the city, leaving behind a devastated landscape covered in death without ever completing their encirclement…
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a year ago · Matt Osborne

18 April: Analysts are talking of a long war now, but this was already a long war. As Ukrainians take pains to remind us in the forgetful west, Putin first invaded back in 2014. One more year of war that ends in victorious, lasting peace for them is not so bad in that context. In fact, make it two years. Or eight more. Whatever. President Zelenskyy says his country is in it to win it no matter how long that takes.

Polemology Positions
Ukraine Can Build Back Better And Faster Than Russia
Kyiv is returning to life. Street artists like Sasha Korban (see above, link) are patronizing reopened cafés, an early indicator that Ukraine can recover from the massive hit to their economy as long as they are still able to access global distribution chains…
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a year ago · Matt Osborne

25 April: If Ukraine was saved in the first four days, it now stands to reason that Ukraine might win the whole war in four months. Events suggest an accelerated strategic momentum in Kyiv. Proverbial tides are turning.

Polemology Positions
Russian Colossus Almost Out Of Steam
If Ukraine was saved in the first four days, it now stands to reason that Ukraine might win the whole war in four months. Events suggest an accelerated strategic momentum in Kyiv. Proverbial tides are turning. Another defeat looms for Vladimir Putin and a Russian Army that does not learn. Ukraine is still…
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a year ago · Matt Osborne

8 May. This is how the Putin clique loses a war to Ukraine and remains in power: by hyping the Ukrainian threat in order to militarize society and the state without invoking the wartime measures of real conscription and economic centralization.

Polemology Positions
Get Ready For A 'Special Mobilization'
As Vladimir Putin’s 9 May deadline for victory looms, the Kremlin is in a tight propaganda spot. They have downplayed the possibility of a formal declaration of war and a national mobilization, but Ukraine is not cooperating with efforts to salvage a victory out of the battles already in progress. Consider some indicators…
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a year ago · Matt Osborne

22 May. At some indeterminate hour in the coming days, an armada of small and large drones will buzz over Russian positions. Ukrainian tanks and troops will not be far behind the accurate, withering artillery fire directed by these drones … Putin is at least as aware of what is coming as any Substack writer. At this point, he may even be counting on it.

Polemology Positions
How A Ukrainian Offensive Could Finally Trigger That Formal Russian Declaration Of War
Ukraine has a lot of technicals, or converted civilian vehicles, by necessity. Until recently, they were the weaker power improvising weapons. Now, Russia needs improvisations much more than Ukraine, so we are seeing lots of technicals on the battlefield marked with big Zs. The example in the photo may be a stolen …
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10 months ago · Matt Osborne

7 June: No country is an island. All wars that have ever been fought in Ukraine disrupted the existing global food system. The first step in restoring Ukraine’s links to the world economy and reducing worldwide inflation in grain prices is to reopen their Black Sea ports.

Polemology Positions
To Win the Battle of the Black Sea
No country is an island. All wars that have ever been fought in Ukraine disrupted the existing global food system. The first step in restoring Ukraine’s links to the world economy and reducing worldwide inflation in grain prices is to reopen their Black Sea ports. Vladimir Putin knows perfectly well how food insecurity drives famine and conflict worldwi…
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10 months ago · Matt Osborne

2 July: Every time Vladimir Putin changes tactics, it heralds a change in his approach brought on by battlefield reversal. When the initial invasion stalled north of Kyiv, he started blasting cities, and the army retreated behind a hail of artillery fire. When the second attempt at cutting off the whole of eastern Ukraine failed, he bombed their cities harder and Mariupol hardest of all. When Ukraine sank the Moskva, he retaliated with missiles. And so on.

Polemology Positions
The Weight of Fire Shifts in Ukraine
Every time Vladimir Putin changes tactics, it heralds a change in his approach brought on by battlefield reversal. When the initial invasion stalled north of Kyiv, he started blasting citie…
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9 months ago · 1 like · Matt Osborne

23 July: At some point, our living war correspondents will take time away from Donetsk battlefields to read into the historiography and literature of the First World War, find a million parallels, and dazzle us with their reporting. One thing they will discover in consulting the timeline of news back then is that abstraction helps. Paying too much attention to the 24-hour news cycle during an artillery war, or getting too excited about every lost or gained acre of ground, day after day, in a relatively static war of position, only inspires anxiety and depression while offering little insight into the underlying rhythms of battle.

Polemology Positions
Weapons Designed and Built to Defeat Russian Armies are, You Know, Defeating Russian Armies
Which World War wore it better? Journalists reporting from eastern Ukraine in recent weeks described static defense and high casualties from indirect fire, drawing comparisons to the First World War. Now the pre-withdrawal looting has begun in Kherson; a major defeat for Russian arms looms in the southern center of the country, moving at comparative bre…
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8 months ago · Matt Osborne

8 August: Western long-range weapons designed to defeat and destroy Russian armies have turned the tide of battle in Ukraine. Russian leadership has reacted to Ukrainian signalling of a counteroffensive in Kherson province by moving combat power from other points in the line. As will be evidenced by subsequent events, this has been a strategic mistake.

Polemology Positions
Sucker Play in Kherson
Western long-range weapons designed to defeat and destroy Russian armies have turned the tide of battle in Ukraine. Russian leadership has reacted to Ukrainian signalling of a counteroffensive in Kherson province by moving combat power from other points in the line. As will be evidenced by subsequent events, this has been a strategic mistake. Not that I…
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8 months ago · 2 likes · Matt Osborne

12 August: Under these conditions, the possibility of sudden local Russian collapses, or units surrendering after days or weeks of hunger, bombardment, disconnection, and psychological pressure, is contrarily high. Civilians in occupied Kherson will suffer accordingly. Nevertheless, the turning point is past.

Polemology Positions
The Trap Has Shut In Kherson
On Monday, I wrote about the sucker’s bet that Ukraine has set up for Vladimir Putin in Kherson Oblast. By drawing Russian combat power to the northern bank, away from the east of the country, Kyiv has trapped a critical core of the Russian Army within a fire sack, cut off from resupply and reinforceme…
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7 months ago · 5 likes · 1 comment · Matt Osborne

17 August: The motley collection of units inside the Kherson pocket includes most of Russia’s best remaining troop formations. Losing them would be a genuine disaster. No significant offensive operations would be possible for Moscow anywhere, any time soon. Any defeat here will be a devastating blow.

Polemology Positions
Ukraine Has An Attrition Strategy of Their Own in Crimea and Kherson
Using precision long-range weapons, Ukraine has trapped a Russian army on the northern bank of the Dnipro and cut their logistical lifelines crossing that river. Footage of one strike shows secondary explosions along the Antonivsky Bridge (see above screengrab; video is embedded below). There are reports that a supply col…
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7 months ago · 1 like · Matt Osborne

26 August: Although many western airplanes and crews were required to accomplish air supremacy over free Ukraine, it was achieved without the imposition of a NATO “no-fly zone” or a direct east-west confrontation of any kind.

Polemology Positions
Just How Much Real-Time Intelligence Do the US and NATO Give Ukraine?
Last week, the Washington Post published a series of long-read articles on the intelligence picture of Russian intentions leading up to this February’s resumed invasion of Ukraine. When the US and Britain tried to impress their analysis on President Zelenskyy, he made a controversial decision to avoid panicking the public so that if Ru…
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7 months ago · 1 like · Matt Osborne

31 August. On the first day of the battle, there was talk of “shaping operations.” The “shape” of the Kherson fire sack is flexible, like a canvas duffel bag with a VDV paratrooper stuffed inside it, and the idea is to beat him with a stick until he stops struggling.

Polemology Positions
A Fire Plan Does Not Lie
During the second day of a long-awaited counteroffensive in the south of Ukraine, artillery of all description hit “more than 220” different Russian targets across the northern portion of Kherson Oblast, according to official sources. Reports from within the battlezone and NASA fire …
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7 months ago · Matt Osborne

5 September. The pace is picking up, little by little, while Moscow continues to deny that Russians are even fighting a real war at all. Without a major correction, including a real wartime mobilization in Russian cities, these trend lines will end at a very real, and historic, defeat for Russian arms.

Polemology Positions
The Kherson Fire Sack Cinches Tighter
The entire right bank of the Dnipro lies within range of Ukrainian artillery, which has throttled Russian logistics by destroying the bridges across the river, turning this half of Kherson Oblast into what US Army artillerists call a “fire sack.” For their own war with Russia, the Finns called it a…
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7 months ago · Matt Osborne

7 September. If Ukraine surrounds Kupyansk, the most important logistical artery in Russian-held east Ukraine will be cut. As we have seen, the Russian Army lacks enough truck support to replace railroads as a means of getting all that artilery ammunition to the front. At the very least, if this offensive succeeds, sham referenda for Russian annexation in Donetsk and Luhansk will be impossible.

Polemology Positions
Ukraine: Thunder Run to Kupyansk
With the core of Russian combat power squeezed into the Kherson fire sack, Russian forces have been spread thin, and Ukraine has taken advantage, achieving surprise with a deep offensive against Russian logistics. If successful, Bakhmut and Izyum will be cut off from supply by railroad. If that happens, the Russian front…
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7 months ago · 2 likes · Matt Osborne

9 September. We know the Kharkiv offensive has succeeded because of a remarkable information environment. Military bloggers with Telegram channels are just about the only “free press” of any kind in Russia. They describe a woeful defense and a frantic retreat north of Izyum during the previous 72 hours. Only one Russian milblogger has denied that Ukrainians hold Kupyansk today, and he had to do it from a city limits sign posted several miles east of the city. Retreat is general and reinforcements are tardy.

Polemology Positions
Russian Armies Are Starting To Break
Yesterday, a Ukrainian soldier published a selfie (see below) at the city limits of Shevchenkove, a village roughly 26 km (22 mi) from Kupyansk, the railroad hub that seems to be the key objective of the surprise Ukrainian offensive this week. As the sun goes down in Kharkiv…
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7 months ago · 3 likes · Matt Osborne

10 September. Things are falling apart everywhere, all at once, for the Russian Army. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin, the man who set it all in motion, making every strategic call that brought this disaster into being, appeared in Moscow today to open a ferris wheel and martial arts center. Placid, making no remarks on the unfolding defeat, Putin will perform the role of supreme leader until the curtain comes down. This is no way to run a war.

Polemology Positions
Putin is Breaking the Russian Army
A surprise offensive in Kharkiv Oblast this week has sent Russian forces reeling in disorder. Made possible by the holding operation in Kherson, this sudden advance and encirclement of thousands of Russian troops has shattered the thin Russian lines in the occupied northeast, creating a general rout down the line of contact across t…
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7 months ago · 1 like · Matt Osborne

12 September. Defeat is the hardest test of military organizations. Doctrine and training matter most when the direction of the battle is at its worst. An army cannot assume they will always win a victory all the time — local defeat is inevitable in war, especially a war of attrition.

Polemology Positions
Gen. Retreat: The Fine Art of Spin During the Collapse Phase of Authoritarian Debacles
The more personal power one person tries to impose over a very large system at one time, the less capable service that system delivers under stress. Contrary to their reputation, most autocrats are in fact very bad at making trains run on time, or even at all, and under stress an authoritarian train system will often break down completely…
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6 months ago · 3 likes · 3 comments · Matt Osborne

20 September. That Russian politics remains unable to commit to full war mobilization at this late date is emblematic of Putinism, the absolute culmination of his career. But like the supposed bombing of Putin’s limousine, it is all pointless drama at this point, anyway. The mobilization debate no longer matters. Decisive action has been delayed for too long.

Polemology Positions
Putin and the Decline of Third Rome
Territory is not victory. Attempts to parse a win out of minor map changes are at best propaganda, at worst a delusion. One army pushing another out of, say, Kharkiv Oblast looks great on an animated map, but it says nothing about the state of either army right now, or what it will be like next week. A lot else is going on…
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6 months ago · 4 likes · Matt Osborne

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Ukraine's War of Independence, Vol. I

www.polemology.net
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