Putin Goes All In, Trump Folds
It is all up to the gambler's fallacy, now
In the fourth year of Vladimir Putin’s genocidal war against Ukrainians, Donald Trump expressed surprise that the Russian leader had once again escalated his attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine. Over the weekend, Russia launched its largest bombardment of Ukrainian cities in the war to date. Responding to a reporter’s question, Trump indicated he would consider sanctions now because Putin “is killing a lot of people.” Senators are already pressing for new legislation that would sanction any country doing business with Russia. Europe is ramping up its defense industrial base and sanctioning Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ into penury.
Still, Putin believes he can win, so he is all-in, a gambler doubling down to the last chip. From the beginning of the war, I have maintained that this would be Putin’s character arc, and now here we are. Frustrated in his hopes for peace, Trump defaults to the mode of the casino builder who fails. He lashes out at President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine like the trash-talking professional wrestler he has always been. Trump was always useful to Putin as a wedge against the western democracies, but now his usefulness is almost at an end, just like the Russian economy. Trump has little power over the outcome, anymore.
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