Trump's Ukraine Peace Plan Ends In Disappointment, Phony Putin Ceasfire
Behold the limits of brand transactionalism
Easter is today, and there is no peace in Ukraine. Putin agreed to a ceasefire, broke it immediately, and then pretended he had never agreed to anything. Real estate mogul Steve Witkoff is exactly the wrong peace envoy for this Kremlin, for he conceives of Russia’s genocidal war in Ukraine as a mere real estate dispute.
Yesterday, Putin declared an Easter ceasefire which was immediately broken with the usual front line assaults and missile bombardment of Ukrainian civilians. He is stringing Donald Trump along a little further, always a little further. The humiliation is implied and intentional.
Whereas Trump’s man in Moscow is cutting a deal that trades territories, Vladimir Putin and the ruling clique in the Kremlin hold the annihilation of Ukraine as a sacred value, something they are unwilling to trade for promises of gross material favor. Peace — real peace — cannot be bought at any price to be negotiated. I keep saying that sooner or later, even Trump will figure it out. That time draws near.
At the beginning of April, President Donald Trump was so eager to have a meeting with Vladimir Putin that his inner circle had to hold him back. He got a phone call in March, but no meeting in April. Now the Kremlin is still stringing him along for another phone call.
At the beginning of April, before headlines that Trump was “frustrated” with negotiations, Russia’s state propagandists roasted him. On The Evening With Vladimir Solovyov, the host took umbrage at the words of a White House spokesperson, remarking that Russia has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, which “can solve the problem of any displeasure with colossal speed.”
Political scientist Dmitry Kulikov dismissed any “psychological deadline” for peace. He used the English word “deadline” as though to reject the foreign idea. From his perspective, “for many years the United States has been waging war against Russia. I have one question for Donald Trump: has anything changed right now?”
Kulikov blamed Trump for the tardy state of peace negotiations. “The problem with peace lies in you. This is totally obvious. In a situation of historic proportions, you can’t act like a thug from Brooklyn trying to make a deal. This historic situation will punish you severely.” Remember, this is the most important opinion show in Russia:
Marina Kim, a state TV creature, said that Trump has made Europe bolder, and the world less safe. She deplored his Yemen strikes. “I sympathize with the Houthis to some extent. Tensions are being stoked there as well. Trump is stoking tensions and increasing pressure on Iran.” Would Russia intervene if Trump attacks Iran? Kim demurred, for she cannot answer any policy question like that without knowing what her empoyer thinks, and grandstanding is Solovyov’s job.
Economist Mikhail Khazin took issue with the idea of “peace from a position of strength.” Using the Russian diminutive naming for the Ameircan president, Khazin was scornful. “Where is your strength, Donald Fredovych? Can it be said that Trump has some kind of strength? For now, he has clearly demonstrated that he has no strength. In other words, you can’t talk about Donald Fredovych having strength.” He expressed a “deep pessimism.” The whole panel was enthusiastic that Trump might sieze Greenland with military forces.
Last week, Khazin and Solovyov ridiculed Trump for signing the executive order to reverse the 1994 regulations that limited the water flow of plumbing devices. Solovyov averred that Trump’s word is worth very little, and that he is “not a genius.” The Russians are laughing at Donald Trump. They say he is weak. They rubbish his peace plans. But they do like that he thinks about the world in transactional terms, and that it makes America’s allies distrust the United States.
Now Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said the end of presidential patience is close at hand. “If it is not possible to end the war in Ukraine, we need to move on,” he told reporters on Friday. He added that we will know “in a matter of days whether or not this is doable in the next few weeks.” In days, or weeks, Trump will be moving on. But what does that mean, exactly?
“If it’s not possible — if we’re so far apart that this is not going to happen — then I think the president’s probably at a point where he’s going to say, well, we’re done. We’ll do what we can on the margins.” He described Mr. Trump as feeling “very strongly” about this.
One thing it does not mean is the end of a rare earth elements deal. In the latest turn, this weekend Ukraine has signed…well, not a ‘minerals deal’, but an agreement in principle to negotiate one at some point in the future.
As I keep reminding subscribers, Volodymyr Zelenskyy proferred this deal to Trump, gauging correctly that Trump’s “transactional nature” would respond to this “transactional approach,” to quote Constant Méheut at The New York Times.
During 2024, Kyiv withdrew this same offer from the Biden administration in order to offer it to Trump if he won in November. The reason, as we shall now all observe, is that Kyiv needs to keep Trump interested in Ukraine even if he loses interest in a peace deal with Russia.
Thanks to good strategic planning, Ukraine needs the United States less than they used to, but they still do need access to some high-end American weapons, such as Patriot missiles and batteries. They also know that attempts at peace will fail. Zelenskyy and his cabinet understand that Russia occupies Trump’s imagination, and that they are in the way of the intended Trump World Order.
Yet the Ukrainians have not answered this challenge with threats or ridicule. Government figures temper their remarks. Zelenskyy, an accomplished standup comedian, could roast Trump if he wanted, but he does not.
Here is a video of Zelenskyy in 2015, prior his political career, reading a letter home from a ‘volunteer’ in a Ukrainian nationalist militia as imagined by Russian propagandists. Even back then, Ukrainians were supposedly Nazis working for American hegemony and genociding Russian speakers in the Donbas. He skewered it all and cooked it on a roaring fire in this clip. No wonder Putin hates this man so much.
According to YouTube, as I write these words the above clip has been viewed less than 76,000 times. Americans are barely even conscious that Zelenskyy is the real-life avatar of Tom Dobbs, played by Robin Williams in the 2006 film Man of the Year. In that film, a fictional television satirist becomes president. In the satirical Ukrainian television series Servant of the People, Zelenskyy plays Vasiliy, a schoolteacher who becomes president.
Here is a playlist of show episodes on YouTube. At the time of this writing, less than 214,000 people have watched it. (Bear in mind these numbers are global.) Upon viewing, it soon becomes obvious why the show was such a hit in Ukraine, and why Ukrainians wanted him for president. After Man of the Year everyone wanted Williams for president, too.
My point in comparing these clips is that Zelenskyy has vastly superior comic timing and presence compared to the best Russian propagandists. Also he makes terrific choices, trains hard to make his jokes land, and uses every part of his body to tell every joke. If he wanted to crush Trump and J.D. Vance and leave them as metaphorical smears on the Oval Office carpet, he could. He chooses not to.
“If for some reason one of the two parties makes it very difficult, we’re just going to say you’re foolish, you’re fools, you’re horrible people, and we’re just going to take a pass,” Trump told reporters on Friday. “But hopefully we won’t have to do that.” Clear as mud.
Returning to the NYT:
Mr. Rubio said the conversations had been constructive, but it appeared clear that Mr. Trump was losing patience.
“It is not our war. We didn’t start it,” Mr. Rubio said. “The United States has been helping Ukraine for the past three years and we want it to end, but it’s not our war.”
Those four words — “it’s not our war” — contain the whole of Trump’s attitude towards war in general. No war is his war. His genuine preference for trade war over actual war is too little remarked by his critics, frankly.
The clause also sums up MAGA attitudes towards Ukraine. As the above YouTube statistics show, very few base Trump voters have ever seen a single minute of Zelenskyy’s comedy act. They don’t understand him as the Robin Williams of Ukraine. Like Trump, they see him as a beggar and a mooch.
Zalenskyy has an opportunity now to change this character of the Ukraine-US relationship. Kyiv needs patriot missiles, yes, and much else, but they can afford to pay ready cash for them now. They could not do that in 2022, but they can now, thanks to American aid such as Patriots. American defense companies will no doubt be happy for the business. And to date, Ukraine has done nothing to make Trump want to cut off a customer with cash.
Ukraine was willing to lose territory. Ukraine was willing to concede as much as necessary to make the war end, but only if it brought about an actual end to the war. They played ball. They have continued dealmaking with Trump even as prospects for a peace deal fade. Trump is no fan of Zelenskyy, but he engages Trump. He takes Trump’s phone calls. He is polite, even when the relationship breaks down, as it did so spectacularly in February.
After the Oval Office ‘disaster’ in which Volodymyr Zelenskyy left empty-handed, Trump wrote on Truth Social that the Ukrainian president “feels our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations. I don’t want advantage, I want PEACE.” Accordingly, the deal was off and the drama was on: “He can come back when he is ready for peace.” Seldom has the cognitive dissonance of the transactional approach been so plainly stated. Peace does not happen without advantage.
Trump understands leverage. He ghostwrote a whole book about The Art of the Deal, after all. But he is not a studied peacemaker. Jared Kushner is not around to help, this time. Trump does not understand Putin’s Russia as an imperial war machine that eats its neighbors. His administration wants to reorder the global security system so that the United States does not have to defend Europe, so that the US can focus on defending Taiwan.
In Trump’s mind, he is inseparable from the American brand. (His political opponents have erred by making identity their brand.) His titular real estate business empire is essentially a real estate brand, while his television persona was also a brand, his game show was about making and promoting brands, and now that he is the brand president, Trump wants brand transactions with every country, meaning a new, transactional American relationship to the world. A renewed American brand: MAGA. It’s right on the hat.
Not being a diplomat, Trump takes out his frustrations on Zelenskyy in public whenever his outreach meets the hard reality of Putin’s maximalist demands. He has blamed Zelenskyy for the war — but not because he is Putin’s Manchurian candidate, or because he is still buttmad about Joe Biden. Trump blames Zelenskyy because he is inconvenient. The future existence of Ukraine has been questionable for Trump because Ukraine is in the way of his dreams for a Russian-Chinese-Trump alliance of the Great.
On Thursday, however, Trump seemed to soften his opinion of Zelenskyy at least an iota. “I'm not blaming him, but what I am saying is that I wouldn't say he's done the greatest job, OK? I am not a big fan,” said Trump, who has never been a fan of Zelenskyy since before the 2022 Russian invasion.
When their relationship took its first wrong turn, Trump was looking for dirt on the Joe Biden brand, but Zelenskyy did not have any to dig up for him. It was this lack of a quid to match Trump’s pro quo that ultimately led to the failure of his first impeachment, for without that transaction, no actual crime had been committed.
Time has passed. Circumstances have changed. Donald Trump was always going to be disappointed in the results of his approach. Vladimir Putin did not invade Ukraine over real estate. He did not send assassination teams after Volodymyr Zelenskyy over Russian language speakers in Ukraine and he is not throwing away Russians in meatwave attacks to eliminate Nazis.
Putin will always disappoint Trump. He will never make a deal. At the time of this writing, Zelenskyy is still doing business with Trump, though. Whatever ‘mineral deal’ results from that process will have to be more to Ukraine’s liking than previous offers from Trump, but unlike with Russia, a deal is still possible.
Now, this does not mean that Trump will ask Congress for an aid package for Ukraine. Common wisdom says that will never happen. This slight warming trend does not mean that Trump likes Zelenskyy or Ukraine now. It’s not his war, as he keeps reminding us all. It’s Joe Biden’s war, so it’s on his brand, not the Trump brand. He yearns for a brand transaction with the Putin brand but he is experiencing disappointment. The standard Trump reaction to disappointment is disinterest.
So: what does Trumpian disinterest in Putinian peace look like? Probably some arms sales, continued intelligence-sharing, and benign neglect of Russian sanctions. That is, rather than new sanctions, or dropping old ones, Trump might choose to simply leave the status quo in place and let Ukraine fight their own war without American money.
That might be enough. Stocks of basic battlefield equipment will be exhausted in 2026. The Russian non-defense economy is reportedly shrinking to nothing, removing material suppliers from the industrial and service sectors. The oil shock of Trump’s tariffs have reportedly wreaked more macroeconomic destruction in Russia than any Biden price cap. Putin keeps militarizing his society, impressing more conscripts, hiding more deficits.
Meanwhile, Ukrainians are dominating the drone war, which is to say they enjoy a very strong defensive position on the battlefield. In the ongoing peace negotiation process called “war,” time is currently on Ukraine’s side. It is not on Putin’s side. Trump’s decisions now, whatever they are, can only do so much to alter this reality. Too many of the most important decisions have already been made. Trump is right that it not his war. He is wrong to think he can still own the ensuing peace.
How Much Time Does Putin Have?
Wars are fundamentally macroeconomic affairs. Think of war machinery as capital investment, while conscription is a form of taxation. Humans have only invented three basic ways to finance and supply wars: inflation, taxes, and debt. Thus, over the long run of history, victory in war has consistently gone to