Why China Might Choose Another War Than Taiwan

A strategic scenario that gets less far-fetched all the time

“Over the past decade, the CCP has refined a highly nationalistic historical narrative that emphasizes past injustices inflicted by foreign powers on China,” Mark Metcalf writes in a 2020 article about the ‘Century of Humiliation’. Beginning with Chairman Mao’s first speech as master of China in 1949, it is a view of history in which China is the whole world’s victim.

The CCP “has used this interpretation to justify severe responses to foreign actions that it perceives as blatant violations of its sovereignty, threats to its territorial integrity, or insults to the Chinese people.” A series of military defeats, “unequal treaties,” domestic unrest, and civil war were followed by Japanese occupation. China is keeping a list of grudges. Some of them are more visible than others at any given time, but all of them hold value to the CCP as grudges.

During 2020, as the covid lockdowns began, analysts noted “a dramatic and aggressive turn” in Chinese policy. ‘Wolf warrior diplomats’ responded to ‘provocations’ while the Chinese economy suffered a series of ongoing breakdowns. Regime insecurity expressed as regime hostility. While the Taiwan Strait has been the most visible scene of nationalist saber-rattling during this time of crisis, China’s naval buildup may be insufficient to conquer Taiwan on its own.

If they want a softer target, Beijing has a weakening rival right on their doorstep, ripe for hybrid war conquest. Satisfaction of this very old grudge could even make Chinese ambitions against Taipei and their allies easier to achieve. A very rough sketch of this alternative scenario reveals that preparations have already been underway for years.

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