Truth Is The First Casualty Of Peace

My inevitable take on the Indo-Pak dustup

A Chinese-made Pakistani J-10C aircraft

I generally avoid giving hot takes on hot wars. Fog of war is one problem, propaganda and wishful thinking posing as official reporting are two more problems. Important nuances also get lost in translation. Reports prove false, or half-true, so that it is not safe to form a solid opinion from the outside.

The latest war over Kashmir — most of which appears to have taken place over Kashmir — is a prime example of why I try to maintain this policy. A ceasefire was agreed upon, then it was broken everywhere, by everyone; either five Indian jet fighters were lost to Pakistani Chinese-built jet fighters, or maybe just the two that landed on the ground as debris, or maybe three; and the ceasefire now seems to be holding, or maybe not. Both sides now claim victory, of course, since there was no clear winner.

What is the military historian to do with such nonsense? Pakistan and India also both love cricket. I don’t understand the game of cricket, so I don’t know what ‘is cricket’ and what ‘is not cricket’. It is all nonsense to me. So instead of learning about cricket, I can try to find solid, better-informed opinions about international cricket. If you came here to learn the ground facts, I am sorry to disappoint you, for there are no such facts on the ground. The best I can do is provide opinions based on the overall impression I have.

So. My impression of this war is that it was almost kayfabe, the pretense of a real conflict between professional wrestlers. Nobody was actually trying to ‘win.’ As usual in this long-running conflict, both sides were fighting to not lose. That is a pretty easy rule to remember, in this region. What matters most is why this happened at all. Pakistan is a declining military state very aware of its own decline, and no one sees that decline more clearly than the terrorists that Pakistan nurtured for decades. They do not recognize the Durand Line, the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and they dream of a new caliphate.

---

Forgotten Sunrise: Shiv Kunal Verma's Epic History of the Second Kashmir War