Trump Eyes An Escalation Strategy In Iran
Why I think he will probably choose a raid on Pickaxe Mountain
The Chabahar maritime watchtower was 78 meters tall. It was constructed during the 2010s upgrades to the Shahid Beheshti terminal of Chabahar Port. Chabahar is the only deep water seaport Iran has on the Indian Ocean and it has become a regional trading hub. It allows the regime to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
Overlooking the mouth of the strait, the maritime traffic control tower was also the cornerstone to Iran’s efforts to control navigation, safety, and coordination for commercial shipping in the region. Now, after a series of strikes over five days, it is a pile of rubble — along with Teheran’s ambition to control the strait.
This week, Trump got people excited by proclaiming US control of the strait and a 20 percent tariff on traffic, then changing his mind the next day, citing “investments” by Gulf Arab countries. Some see this as madness. I see it as Trump trolling his enemies in Iran who keep claiming control of the strait. As the week ends, CENTCOM is contrarily closing the strait to Iran. Tehran has no control.
Tankers are still moving through the ‘Omani route’ despite threats from the IRGC, if at a reduced rate. It is not always visible, since many captains now turn off their AIS transponders while transiting the strait. The leverage is simply gone. Markets have already priced the conflict. Iran isn’t going to spike oil prices like they wish, and now the blockade of their own oil is back in place.
Trump has been given three policy choices to put further military pressure on the regime, according to The Wall Street Journal. He can put ‘boots on the ground’ to seize coastal real estate, such as the oil terminal on Kharg Island. Or he can expand airstrikes beyond the bridges, piers, railroads, electric utilities, and other infrastructure now getting pounded every day.
Or he can do something about Pickaxe Mountain, “a heavily fortified underground site consisting of tunnels built into granite some 300 feet to 475 feet beneath the surface of a mountain peak—far deeper than Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites at Natanz and Fordow, which the U.S. and Israel bombed last summer.”
Construction at the site appears to be incomplete. Analysts say there are two shafts, 100 meters and 145 meters deep, that might have 53,000 square feet (5,000 square meters) of floor space. Activity at the site in the last year suggests the regime has plans to restart their nuclear program at Pickaxe Mountain.
“The depth of the Pickaxe tunnels means they may not be vulnerable to direct hits from the Massive Ordnance Penetrators — 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs — dropped on Natanz and Fordow”, Laurence Norman reports. “Iranian officials have said the site is designed to make it less vulnerable to that sort of attack.”
“We have eyes on it and Pickaxe Mountain is a possible target for a nice big fat shot,” Trump said in an appearance with conservative broadcaster Hugh Hewitt this week. “Tell the Iranians to be ready.” Take him seriously, if not literally. This is telegraphing. Trump seems to like the idea of taking out Pickaxe Mountain. He cannot do that with bunker busters in the current US inventory.
That leaves boots on the ground as the only option. American troops will have to enter Iran, take control of the site, and use demolitions to destroy it while defending themselves from a siege by Iranian forces, and then extract safely. In military terms, this would be a coup de main, an audacious operation with a simple goal and rapid execution. A raid, not a conquest.
