The Wild Rumors About Xi Jinping And The CCP Are Just Brand Management
Amid the complex internal collapse of China
It has been clear for months that something is going on in China. But what? Rumors of change have been rampant. Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China, was said to have lost power in a bloodless coup; he was under house arrest, and being forced from office this September; a meeting of the politburo in June turned into a struggle session, with a tearful confession from Xi, who had to miss the BRICS summit in July because he is no longer allowed to leave the country. And so on.
The story reached mainstream media via an op-ed in The New York Post at the end of June. “Xi is in poor health and likely to retire at the CCP Plenary Session this August or take a purely ceremonial position,” investment guru Gregory Slayton predicted, citing “recent purges (and mysterious deaths) of dozens of People’s Liberation Army generals loyal to Xi; all replaced by non-Xi loyalists.”
Some other details seem legit: Xi’s security force has been cut in half, he was missing in action for two weeks in May and June as foreign leaders visited Beijing, and the People’s Daily newspaper, the official voice of the CCP, has stopped glazing Xi with headline coverage of his every move. He is said to be in poor health — Xi is 72 — while his father’s mausoleum, which is larger than the tombs of Mao or Deng, was ‘un-named’ in June, a blow to Xi’s cult of personality. One could almost call it ‘ego austerity’.
The more salient point, however, is that control of the PLA is control of the CCP and of China. So, what’s going on, there? And what does it mean for China’s neighbors? These are the only strategic questions that really matter. Xi Jinping is not stepping aside anytime soon, no matter what mysterious documents supposedly say. This is instead a kabuki drama of disinformation from a regime in genuine crisis.
The CCP is not going away, and it is not capable of real reform, so we are getting a version of the truth that creates the impression some sort of reform is pending in China. To understand what is really going on, it pays to examine what is happening in the PLA, and what the changes in leadership imply for the Taiwan Strait.
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