The State Of Russia's War In Ukraine
The very state of it
Donald Trump seems to have made up his mind about whether Ukraine has a future. At the time I am writing this, he still thinks that Vladimir Putin wants peace. “I think he does, yes,” the U.S. president answered. But: “I think… his dream was to take over the whole country” of Ukraine. “I think because of me, he’s not gonna do that,” Trump told Terry Moran of ABC News on Wednesday. The Trump administration also agreed to a ‘minerals deal’ with Ukraine with more sensible and equitable parameters than what was on the table during the Oval Office ‘disaster.’
A shift in American strategy seems to be at hand. Trump says Russia might have to give back “all of Ukraine” for peace. Arms are already flowing again, though as direct commercial sales rather than aid packages. Ukraine is even picking up their weapons to fly them home using their own Antonov An-124 Ruslan aircraft, a convenience which the Biden administration refused to allow, believing it would lead to Russian escalation. Anonymous Russians are worried about Trump flipping to Ukraine. Anonymous Russia analysts expect Putin to alter his approach now, to perhaps step back from his maximalist demands, seeking to lull the West back into a false sense of security once again.
There is reason for doubt. Putin has locked his economy and society into a doom-cycle. Russia’s war in Ukraine is not going well, and the trend lines look grim. Casualties are higher than ever, especially on the Russian side. OPEC is reducing global oil prices, Russian deficit forecasts have tripled, and Russian banks have reportedly given up on the commercial lending business. He is now unable to stop wartime spending without a complete collapse that would threaten the regime, but his industries cannot keep pace with material losses that have emptied out Russia’s armories. Meanwhile, Ukraine has built a wall of drones, reorganized their forces, and revolutionized the battlefield.
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