The Siege Of Crimea Opens With A Spectacular Kerch Strait Bridge Strike

Is a new southern offensive coming?

Speculations are unnecessary. This one, you can blame on the Ukrainians. For his birthday, Vladimir Putin received a gift from the same clandestine servants who keep making things go boom in Crimea.

This time, it was a train of tanker cars. Because some bulk liquids are prone to go boom with catastrophic results at the least excuse, a tanker train parked on a vital bridge corridor makes an inviting target for some sort of long-distance strike.

Speculation abounded as the sun rose over the scene and images began to reach social media. How did they do it? And does it herald a new phase in the war? How will Russia respond?

AFP News Agency @AFP

#UPDATE Russian investigators Saturday said three people were killed after a truck exploded on its bridge linking Moscow-annexed Crimea to the mainland, adding that the owner of the vehicle had been identified

The Russian explanation is at least consistent with security camera video from the scene. A suicide bomber/driver would be uncharacteristic of Ukrainian covert operations, but it cannot be ruled out. Alternately, the driver of the truck might have been unaware he was hauling a massive bomb.

What interests me more is that the explosion clearly targeted the train, which caught fire and burned as intended, putting a key logistical artery out of commission. That means the bridge had to be under surveillance so that the strike could be delivered at exactly the right time.

The road span appears flattened from above by the blast

Both the railroad span and two of the three roadways will need extensive repair before they can carry traffic again. Russian armies need a working railroad within 60 miles in order to operate, and now the only remaining functional rail connection from Russia to Kherson Oblast goes through occupied Donetsk Oblast within range of Ukrainian artillery.

Not by coincidence, a “powerful explosion” also struck a cargo train in Ilovaisk last night. “The occupiers now have big problems with supplies from both sides,” according to the Mayor of Mariupol. We can rule out accident: the train was the target. But was the truck driver really responsible?

A news graphic reassures Russians that trained dlophins protect the bridge

I have my doubts about the official story. I think Ukraine used a large drone-bomb to do this. Three civilians, including the truck driver, were probably in the wrong place at the wrong time.

I have no direct evidence for this, just the fact that similar mysterious explosions have been pretty frequent around Crimea lately.

It is still not clear what took place at Saki airbase in August, for instance. We do know a drone bomb struck the Black Sea Fleet headquarters at Sevastopol that month. In July, Ukraine targeted flammable facilities inside Russia with weaponized UAVs they had purchased from online discount retailers.

The scenario fits their pattern of activity much better than a truck bombing, let alone a suicide bombing.

The fire was put out with a helicopter bucket but the damage was done

Predictably, the Telegram bloggers are screaming for nuclear strikes on Kyiv. They feel the situation slipping away. Kherson has become a death trap — and a preview of what happens next in Crimea.

First, HIMARS knocked out the bridges over the Dnipro. Then, when Russians used ferries, Ukraine targeted the landing points and ammunition warehouses. We should expect a similar sequence of events in Crimea: if Ukraine can strike a tanker train in the Kerch Strait, they can also hit a ferry crossing the Kerch Strait.

Ukraine Has An Attrition Strategy of Their Own in Crimea and Kherson

The strike may also signal an imminent Ukrainian offensive in the south that would cut Putin’s “land bridge” to Crimea. Such speculation has abounded since the lightning advance through Kharkiv Oblast in September. Given how thin Russian forces are stretched now, it makes sense for Kyiv to try. If they succeed, they can spend the whole winter picking Russian forces apart in Crimea to set the stage for victory.

Officials in Crimea are sending conflicting messages about rationing of groceries and other supplies today, for they cannot admit the war is all but lost. Residents of Crimea are not stupid, though. They are lining up to fill their gas tanks and making plans to leave, for the state of siege has settled on them, and they can feel it.