The IRGC Must Make Payroll Next Week

A wild weekend of speculation gives way to easier options

The United States armed forces and their Israeli partners intensified the campaign against Iran’s domestic fuel infrastructure over the weekend. Now Trump is trying to restrain the Israelis from doing even more damage. Strategic goals always differ between allies, so this is nothing new. Moreover, the Trump administration must now use capacities that Israel does not have if the war is to end on favorable terms for either ally. Benjamin Netanyahu is no fool. He will know his limitations with Trump by now.

This week, Trump administration intends to pick up the reinsurance business from Lloyd’s of London, an announcement they should have made on 28 February. Pentagon planners are working on an escort system to encourage the ship owners, another measure that should have been in place beforehand. These efforts may be late, and have the character of muddling through events, but they are potentially decisive.

When traffic eventually resumes through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran cannot be allowed to import gasoline and fuel oil to replace what has been destroyed. Global oil markets can adjust while Iran’s domestic markets collapse. Europeans are screaming, but irrelevant. In the long run, the winner is the United States — and the loser is the United Kingdom, which has just lost their control of the shipping insurance cornerstone to the global economy.

Iran cannot close the strait themselves. They can certainly try, can even inflict damage, but they cannot defeat the power of war risk insurance policy subsidies. Their means to close the strait is greatly reduced: Iran’s navy has no ships left, only small boats that are supremely vulnerable to US surveillance and aerial dominance; Iranian shore radars are easily blinded or destroyed; Iran has their own ships at sea. In fact, two ships laden with rocket fuel precursors set sail for home from China this weekend. They will never make it to port.

Forget doomsday. Forget landing on Kharg Island, which would put Americans in artillery range of mainland Iran. Forget the Kurdish invasion force idea. A weekend of speculation and the AI propaganda slop hangover has passed, here is your cup of strong coffee: There is an ‘easy button’ at sea, one that the United States Navy and Marine Corps are well-equipped to push. Simply rolling up Iran’s shadow fleet will cut off most of the revenue stream to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This time, the Americans take the hostages. No invasion necessary.

The suppression campaign against Iran’s missile capabilities will likely last through the end of March. Meanwhile, the security services of Iran have a payday coming up on Friday 20 March, which is also the Persian new year (Nawruz). The armies of Islam have historically balked over nonpayment of salaries as often as the armies of any other religion: no income, no payroll, no army.

The Basij will likely be the first regime security force to crack under the pressure of runaway inflation. If they go, IRGC will be completely isolated within the country. It all starts with cutting the flow of money into Iran — and cutting off the regime from its own fuel supply. The rest is exclusively for premium subscribers.