Last week, Ukrainians posted this historic video clip of a small, cheap first-person view (FPV) drone intercepting a Russian Lancet drone that cost at least ten times as much. While these intercepts have been common for over a year, producing extensive highlight reels from the intercepting drones, the more interesting, hence historic development here is the independent view of a third drone: we see two Ukrainian drones hunting one Russian drone. While the Lancet is an impressive weapon, Russia cannot sustain this exchange rate.
Russians are apparently trying to avoid Ukrainian interceptors with complex maneuvers. Rather than give up on deep reconnaissance and attack drones, during August rear-view cameras started showing up on downed examples. At the same time, Ukrainians were already developing new, reusable interceptor drones armed with shotguns. ‘Mongoose’ uses AI to complete an intercept, so electronic warfare will not stop it. How long before there is a tail gun on the deep strike drone? How long do we have before the waves of Shahed-style attack drones resemble the bomber waves of World War II, pursued by drone fighters?
During Phase 1.0, Ukrainians used small UAVs (s-UAVs) to direct artillery fires on Russians while Russians used them to see their surroundings and fight from inside of tanks. The drone war changed in 2023 with Ukraine’s long-range strikes inside of Russia, which have become more numerous and far more damaging, as well as full embrace of s-UAV tactics by both sides. The aerial drone-on-drone engagement was expected before 2022 as a technological certainty, it became common during Drone War 2.0 in Ukraine, and now it shall be ubiquitous. Sea drones also came of age during this second phase, and now land drones are becoming common, at least on the Ukrainian side. Drone War 3.0 will combine these technologies to achieve operational effects. That is fancy talk for ‘winning’.
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