Russia And Iran On The Back Foot In Syria

But no one seems to have a plan for what comes next

After a lightning campaign punctuated by exploding pagers, the IDF announced on 29 October that their “military goals in Lebanon have been achieved and that the Israeli government can now promote a diplomatic resolution to end the conflict in the North.” Officially, a ceasefire with Hezbollah came into effect on 27 November last Wednesday, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicating a new focus on Iran thereafter. According to the Washington Post, “a close aide” of Netanyahu had “told Donald Trump and Jared Kushner” beforehand “that Israel is rushing to advance a cease-fire deal in Lebanon” as “an early foreign policy win” for the returning president. A gift for a staunch ally.

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From The Liver To The Knee: Operation Grim Beeper Sends Hezbollah A Message

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Also last Wednesday, Syrian insurgent forces (“takfiri terrorists,” according to Tehran) started their biggest offensive since 2016, entering Aleppo, the second-largest city in the country, on Friday. “Armed drones and other sophisticated tools played a pivotal role, enabling the opposition to effectively manage the conflict and secure rapid territorial gains,” seizing “key strategic locations, including stretches of the M5 highway and major military bases such as Brigade 46 and Regiment 46” in three days. A senior Iranian commander was among the first casualties of the offensive. Consumed with the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin could only bleat about the need to “restore order” in Aleppo.

Suddenly, everyone was focused on the fighting in Syria, while Lebanon was forgotten. While convenient for Netanyahu’s government, the timing of the Syrian opposition offensive was not his choice. Moreover, the Syrian opposition managed to keep their intentions secret from the world, taking the Syrian government forces by surprise, which is amazing, since there really is no “Syrian opposition.” Rather, a coalition of armed confessional and ethnic groups that are normally at odds with one another was able to plan this offensive and cooperate in its execution. For a variety of reasons, mostly cultural, Arab armies normally perform poorly in battle. This time, however, the enemies of Bashar al-Assad have seemingly united to catch lightning in a bottle. The United States is using air power to support them. Things are moving so fast that no one seems to know where this is going, least of all the Syrian opposition, whoever they are. Yes, who even are they?

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