The United States joined European partners in voting to censure Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency yesterday. This was a complete flip from two weeks ago when the Biden administration was telling European partners they shouldn’t censure Iran for stockpiling highly enriched uranium.
Even before Ebrahim Raisolsadati, aka Ebrahim Raisi, became a crispy critter on a mountainside three weeks ago, Iran had spun up their centrifuges for nuclear breakout.
The report, seen by The Associated Press, said Iran now has 142.1 kilograms (313.2 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60% — an increase of 20.6 kilograms (45.4 pounds) since the last report by the U.N. watchdog in February. Uranium enriched at 60% purity is just a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%.
IAEA’s definition says that around 42 kilograms (92.5 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60% is the amount at which creating one atomic weapon is theoretically possible — if the material is enriched further, to 90%.
Ray Takeyh and Suzanne Maloney wrote at Politico that with Raisi’s death, “the Islamic Republic is in the process of being handed over to untested ideologues.” A new generation of radicalized leadership is taking over the Revolution:
This cohort is drawn from traditional classes with their attachment to God and his divine republic. They were trained at colleges such as Imam Sadiq University whose curriculum is heavy on religion and light on sciences. They are the foot soldiers of the revolution, manning the security services and the Revolutionary Guards Corps. They have their own political party in the form of the Paydari (Steadfastness) Party and their own publications. Raisi was acceptable to them given his grisly legacy, but they view most of their elders as corrupt relics of the past. They dominate the parliament and are now eyeing the presidency. Among the men that could be acceptable presidents for this cohort would be the former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and the current minister of roads and urban development, Mehrdad Bazrpash. They believe their time has come.
Jalili, a war hero and Revolutionary academic, is reportedly close to Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the supreme leader and possible successor. Jalili also sits on the Expediency Discernment Council of the System (or just ‘Expediency Council,’) a unique feature of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This body advises the supreme leader on disputes between the Majlis, or parliament, and the Guardian Council, which exists to put brakes on pesky demonstrations of popular democracy in the Majlis.
The Expediency Council was created in Khomeini’s 1988 amendment of Iran’s constitution and its name reflects the spirit of “expediency” with which Raisi disposed of thousands of political and religious prisoners through judicial murder. As a practical matter, the Expediency Council maintains the revolutionary consensus. Saeed Jalili has cultivated the politics of that consensus, for example by deferring to Raisi in the 2021 presidential election. He has formally declared his candidacy,
Mehrdad Bazrpash is younger and apparently less accomplished. Most nation-state governments put the Minister of Roads and Urban Development well down their cabinet power verticals, but this is Iran we are discussing. Bazrpash ostensibly oversees every bit of infrastructure in the country, including airports and seaports and railways, so that everything and everyone that goes in or out of the Islamic Republic passes under the supervision of his ministry.
As a practical matter, however, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has physical custody of these assets. They are the means by which the IRGC controls smuggling activity and the shadow economy in Iran. Parviz Fattah, a former IRGC officer now in charge of the bonyads (holding companies) controlled by the supreme leader, is also being floated by an IRGC news outlet. Zohreh Elahian, a woman and former hardline parliamentarian, has also announced she is running.
On 28 June, Iranians will get to choose between crooked hard-liners on the one hand, and harder-liners who are twice as crooked on the other.
Of course, the final decision on nuclear breakout belongs to the supreme leader. Ayatollah Khamenei seems to have adopted a program of plausible deniability for nuclear weapon development. Each subsystem of Iran’s bomb design appears to have been developed independently, without a whole weapon being assembled.
As I observed just a few weeks ago, coalition success in stopping the recent Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel may have inadvertently incentivized Tehran to achieve nuclear breakthrough. Raisi’s death will not stop the centrifuges from spinning nor will the direction of regime nuclear policy take a sudden turn before November, when the United States holds an election.
From Tehran’s perspective, however, it doesn’t matter whether their nuclear breakout happens before or after the Great Satan holds Inauguration Day. Raisi’s presidency was “accompanied by a system-wide purge of experienced technocrats,” replacing expertise with “a younger cadre of ideologues whose sole qualification appears to be personal allegiance to the current Supreme Leader,” according to Ali Parchami.
Today, Iran’s leadership “may lack even the most basic diplomatic skills necessary to engage in realistic and constructive international negotiations.” The enrichment program has become a sacred value instead of a bargaining chip. Joe Biden cannot buy it from them at any price, now. He has been slow to appreciate the change, but perhaps he finally has, now.