Quantum War And Rumors Of Quantum War

On the unknowable military revolution in our time

According to a recent headline in The Wall Street Journal, the Trump administration wants taxpayers to have a stake in the quantum computing industry. Shareholder agreements would provide a minimum of $10 million in “funding earmarked for promising technology companies” in this emerging economic sector. Whereas the 20th century model of science funding received no return on investment, the administration thinks this approach will ensure that Americans benefit from the success of quantum industries in the 21st century, according to the Journal. The Commerce Department denied the story a few hours later. However, quantum stocks remained higher at the end of the day.

American dependence on overseas suppliers for the raw materials of technological warfighting — chips from Taiwan, rare earths from China — is an obvious national security risk. While the Trump administration’s approach is controversial, the problem has received bipartisan attention in Washington. Artificial intelligence and quantum computing are two more emerging tech sectors with military implications, demanding a measure of autarky for the sake of national security. Earlier this month, the War Department Office of Strategic Capital closed a deal to fund two domestic startups in the rare earth minerals sector. It is reasonable to expect similar arrangements for quantum startups in the near future.

Critics of the the 2022 Chips Act say it has wasted time and money through a regulatory, DEI-driven approach to tech development. Trump too has his critics saying that the state should not be a stakeholder in emerging industries. Leaving these controversies aside, the military implications of the quantum revolution deserve our understanding. Here is a brief, in the plainest language I can provide, to understand the potential stakes of quantum warfare.