Putin's Nuclear Bluff Has Been Exposed

Kyiv is still standing 24 hours after their greatest strategic strike of the war

Smoke rises from a Russian airfield

In what is arguably a more successful surprise attack than Pearl Harbor, to which it has been inaptly compared, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) hit four Russian airbases at Olenya, Belaya, Ivanovo and Dyagilevo in a massive operation on Sunday. SBU claims that 41 aircraft, including multiple Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 bombers as well as an A-50 airborne early warning and control system, were destroyed. A number of transport aircraft and tanker planes were also destroyed, according to the President of Ukraine.

If true, SBU has just wiped out about one-third of Russia’s irreplaceable strategic cruise missile-launching aircraft fleet at a stroke, inflicting billions of dollars of losses using first-person view (FPV) drones costing hundreds of dollars each. They have also exposed the hollow nuclear threats through which the Kremlin exerts reflexive control of western politicians. Moscow has always bluffed about nuclear thresholds in Ukraine, and now Kyiv has crossed an avowed red line without incurring the threatened response. Putin stands exposed today.

There is some debate over the possible role of US intelligence in this operation. However, it is hard to believe that Ukrainians would have difficulty finding Soviet-era military bases. While Ukraine did have access to US early warning intelligence systems for the last three years, they have had the same amount of time to develop their own technical means of tracking Russian strategic bombers and detecting the optimal times when they are loaded with missiles and fuel to bomb Ukrainian cities. Put simply, there is no sensible reason to think they needed any American help for this. Efforts to project American or western responsibility are pure cope.

The more interesting point is that Ukraine did not tell Donald Trump, let alone ask his permission to launch Operation Spiderweb. According to Volodymyrr Zelenskyy, every Ukrianian agent involved in the operation (“the people who assisted us”) was safely extracted from Russian territory, which speaks to a high level of planning and preparation that SBU did not want to put at risk by telling Americans anything.

According to an anonymous Ukrainian official who spoke to the AP and Axios, OP Spiderweb was planned for a year and a half, in which case Kyiv was not planning to warn Joe Biden or ask his permission, either. They planned and executed an attack on Russia’s nuclear bomber fleet without consulting the United States at all. As with the Nord Stream bombings, Ukraine has demonstrated a total independence of action.

Altogether, 117 FPV drones successfully launched and struck targets in the operation. According to a Washington Post source, the drones were “concealed inside trucks and beneath the roofs of houses” in specially-designed wooden containers. At a remote command, each false roof opened and FPV drones began to take flight. Some number of the drones used autohoming GPS to land on top of the targeted airplanes while FPV drones allowed for real-time battle damage assessment and decisions. Clear video signals indicate that no effective electronic warfare defenses against small drone video signals were covering the airbases at the time. The autohoming drones reportedly used the Russian cell phone network for precision navigation.

Russian MoD labeled the operation a “terrorist attack,” minimized the results, and claimed to have arrested the Ukrainians responsible. Recriminations were swift, however, because Z Patriots understand the blow to Russia’s strategic nuclear deterrent force is serious. They demand a responsive escalation.

Before Russian officials and state media commented on the attack, the country’s influential “Z community” — pro-war bloggers, military journalists and propagandists — described Sunday’s assault as “Russia’s Pearl Harbor,” with some calling for retaliation.

“We hope that the response will be the same as the US response to the attack on their Pearl Harbor or even harsher,” military blogger Roman Alekhin wrote on his Telegram channel, which has 174,000 subscribers.

“This is not just a pretext. This is a reason to launch nuclear strikes on Ukraine,” wrote the author of the Telegram channel “Two Majors.”

Rybar, a pro-Kremlin channel with links to the Defense Ministry, described the attack as a “very sensitive” blow to Russia’s nuclear shield. “It is impossible to restore these losses,” Rybar added.

In fact, only a handfull of Tu-95s are needed to bombard Ukraine on any given night, as they can each carry more than a dozen cruise missiles at a time. The overall threat to Ukrainian civilians has therefore not decreased, but that was not really the objective, here. Russia will respond, probably with the biggest conventional bombardment they can manage, demilitarizing a number of apartment blocks and trolley stations etc. as usual. Perhaps Putin will even use another Oreshnik this time. Creative cruelty will be the order of the day, but he is running out of original traumas to inflict on Ukraine, which has just inflicted their deepest deep-strike wound of the entire conflict on Russia.

A Ukrainian drone-launching shipping container roof, apparently

Here is a video of the drones taking flight, one by one, from the roof of a truck whose driver had no idea what was happening. After the drones all launched, each truck reportedly self-destructed in fiery explosions. As usual, there was some amount of trolling in Ukrainian operational choices. “What’s most interesting, and this can now be stated publicly, is that the ‘office’ of our operation on Russian territory was located directly next to FSB headquarters in one of their regions,” Zelenskyy wrote on X. “The ‘office’ of our operation on Russian territory was located directly next to FSB headquarters” in Chelyabinsk Oblast, according to Axios sources. Cheeky.

Long-range bombers are the primary means by which Russia projects a threat to NATO and American allies in the Pacific. Just to drive home that this was an intentional blow to Russia’s strategic nuclear “second strike” deterrent, and not simply an answer to the bombardment of Ukrainian cities with cruise missiles, a fifth series of explosions was reported at Severomorsk on the Barents Sea, which houses two-thirds of the Russian nuclear submarine fleet. Rumor has it that a nuclear submarine was destroyed. Video of the blaze appeared on Telegram, though it was unclear what was on fire.

Both “the head of the city” and “a government representative” have denied anything happened at all, which is consistent with Russians avoiding nuclear embarrassment. Rather than threaten Ukraine, the Kremlin seems to be avoiding any committment to retaliatory action, so far. Which is strange, because I was repeatedly promised World War III if Ukraine started winning too hard. Further drone attacks on Moscow and Kursk were reported overnight. Strategic bombers are apparently as vulnerable in Siberia as they are in European Russia. Still no World War III. Should we be disappointed?

No point in Russia is safe from Ukrainian attack. Source

It is worth recalling that eighteen months ago, when OP Spiderweb was conceived according to Zelenskyy, a Ukraine aid bill was stuck in the United States House of Representatives. It was unclear who would win the White House in November. The Biden administration had displayed strategic paralysis for three years, slow-walking the delivery of needful weapons and limiting their use for fear of Russian nuclear escalation. Regardless of who the American president would be, Zelenskyy wanted to impress upon that person just how hollow those Russian threats have always been. Doing it on the eve of peace talks is also a big signal to Putin’s regime: nothing they value is safe, as long as the war continues.