Putin is Breaking the Russian Army
Putin is Breaking the Russian Army
A full rout is on in eastern Ukraine
A surprise offensive in Kharkiv Oblast this week has sent Russian forces reeling in disorder. Made possible by the holding operation in Kherson, this sudden advance and encirclement of thousands of Russian troops has shattered the thin Russian lines in the occupied northeast, creating a general rout down the line of contact across the east and into the occupied south, to points unknown. Unconfirmed reports this afternoon say that Ukrainians are advancing on Lysychansk and Svatove, forming a potential second, double-pincer encirclement into the borders of Luhansk Oblast. Sieverodonetsk is falling. Other reports have Ukrainians advancing out of Vulhedar towards Mariupol, or Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Melitopol, or maybe both. Increasingly gleeful reports say that Donetsk Airport, scene of an early stand by Ukrainian forces during the 2014 invasion, is back in Ukrainian hands, suggesting that the city of Donetsk is about to be liberated; the Russian-appointed city apparatchik of Donetsk has already fled for Russia. Ukrainians are rumored to be inside of Nova Kakhovka, the bridgehead across the Dnipro. According the Russian Rybar channel, Ukrainian formations have reached the border region near Belgorod, where Ukrainian special forces reportedly carried out a lightning raid this week that confiscated Russian mortars and artillery. Partisan activity has apparently redoubled again, all over the occupied zone, as if in expectation of imminent liberation. And of course, it is raining HIMARS everywhere that matters.
Things are falling apart everywhere, all at once, for the Russian Army. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin, the man who set it all in motion, making every strategic call that brought this disaster into being, appeared in Moscow today to open a ferris wheel and martial arts center. Placid, making no remarks on the unfolding defeat, Putin will perform the role of supreme leader until the curtain comes down. This is no way to run a war.
Again, the above reports remain unconfirmed by independent news agencies or western intelligence organizations. Nevertheless, they are consistent with the tone and content of reporting over the last 24 hours from Telegram channels such as the “Gray Zone,” which is associated with the infamous Wagner mercenary company. According to Russians themselves, Izyum, Lyman, and Svatove in Luhansk Oblast have all been abandoned in the face of Ukrainian advances.
More pointedly, the channel is already giving readers a realistic postmortem on the sources of Russian defeat. Artillery directed against non-military targets is ineffective and wasteful. Fabricated reports of success create distrust of official sources. Propagandistic blame-shifting to third parties does nothing for morale. And so on. In Russia, this is actually quite daring criticism, though of course the responsible decision-makers are not named.
At the very least, everything Russia has gained in the east for the last six months appears to be lost in just one week. The Russian defense ministry is trying to spin the headlong retreat as a redeployment to the rear in order to “achieve the stated goals of liberating Donbas.” Again, there is a criticism of Putin allowed in Russia, but not by name, and only from the enthusiasts for his war:
Igor Girkin, a former Russian intelligence colonel who became a commander of the pro-Russian separatist forces in Donbas in 2014, also confirmed the retreat from Izyum.
“A hasty retreat will inevitably lead to heavy losses by the retreating troops in equipment and munitions and — most sensitive of all — in people,” Girkin said in a Telegram post.
At least one source is reportedly standing with their toes on the edge of treason, but still only on the edge. As long as your proposed solution is to invade Ukraine harder next time, you are apparently safe in Russia. The recent mysterious car-bombing death of Daria Dugan is a lot less mysterious in this context. Putin has people to fear in Russia. They are not peacemakers. They are the Russians who propose invading Ukraine harder, killing Ukrainians harder, as the solution to what ails Russia.
When, not if, mortality catches up with Putin, they will probably inherit the power in Moscow. Their type almost always does.
By contrast, consider the fate of critics who are not among the hardliners, the more-Putin-than-Putins. Seven members of the Duma (Russian parliament) petitioned the body this week to charge Putin with high treason for invading Ukraine in the first place. They were all arrested and fined. Yesterday, a group of Moscow legislators called on Putin to resign and have reportedly met the same response. These are not the people who stand to inherit power in Russia. Their type almost never does.
