Polemology Positions

Polemology Positions

'No Other Result Should Have Been Expected'

Avdiivka and the gambler's fallacy

Oct 20, 2023
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There goes the neighborhood: a Russian TOS-1A thermobaric rocket launcher detonated by an FPV drone turns into a spray of molten metal at Avdiivka

In the classic gambler’s fallacy, or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, the model gambler believes that a particular event — say, the roll of 2 on a pair of dice — happening more frequently today than yes…

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