Just How Much Real-Time Intelligence Do the US and NATO Give Ukraine?
Just How Much Real-Time Intelligence Do the US and NATO Give Ukraine?
I have three specific questions
Last week, the Washington Post published a series of long-read articles on the intelligence picture of Russian intentions leading up to this February’s resumed invasion of Ukraine. When the US and Britain tried to impress their analysis on President Zelenskyy, he made a controversial decision to avoid panicking the public so that if Russia did attack, the people would be at home to fight. His decision was partly driven by the sketchiness of the intelligence picture they drew.
The Americans offered little specific intelligence to support their warnings “until the last four or five days before the invasion began,” according to Dmytro Kuleba, Zelensky’s foreign minister.
After the war began, the Biden administration changed its policy and shared information on Russian troop movements throughout Ukraine, on the grounds that the country was now defending itself from an invasion.
It has been apparent since February 24 that the US and NATO allies are providing an immense amount of real-time intelligence to the Ukrainians. From the very first hours, when Russian aircraft dropped like flies and Russian columns got stuck on the roads to Kyiv, right to the present moment, that intelligence firehose has been a key force multiplier for the defenders.
Above is a photo of an intelligence aircraft like the RAF plane spotted by alert transponder watchers last week during the “Alibaba drone” attack on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters at Sevastopol. The Rivet Joint is designed to collect radio communications, radar information, telemetry, and so on. Linguists and analysts can fly on-board, or they can work from remote stations linked to the platform.
Put another way, the intelligence user could be anywhere in the world, even in Ukraine, and this has been available to the Ukrainians from the first day of the war. “Combat air patrols and surveillance were flying 24/7 missions over the alliance’s eastern flank,” according to the Washington Post. Moreover, NATO aircraft enjoyed “visibility deep inside Ukraine.”
With National Security Agency authorization, the United States established a direct communication line from the Ukrainian military to U.S. European Command. The highly secure system would keep the Americans in direct contact with their Ukrainian counterparts as events unfolded.
I will go further than this reporting and question whether a western intelligence view, even an airborne radar view, into Russia has provided early warning of attacks to Ukraine. Russian cruise missiles get shot down with remarkable frequency. Russian pilots no longer challenge Ukrainian air defenses.
Although many western airplanes and crews were required to accomplish air supremacy over free Ukraine, it was achieved without the imposition of a NATO “no-fly zone” or a direct east-west confrontation of any kind.
Here is a second question: to what extent does secrecy about this special relationship explain some of the weirder “fog of war” reporting that we have seen?
A few days ago, there was a successful attack on a radio tower just inside of Russia. Presented to the media as the work of a Switchblade suicide drone, the explosion was far too large for such a weapon.
As military affairs YouTuber Ryan McBeth pointed out last night, it was more likely the work of a special forces team using detonation cord. The drone was just a Ukrainian cover story amplified on social media, then repeated uncritically, without examination, by the full spectrum of media outlets.
This is “gray propaganda,” false explanations for real successes. Ukraine has been using intelligence from foreign powers without disclosing the sources or methods of that intelligence. Gray propaganda is one way to do that.
Third and finally, what intelligence is NATO sharing with Ukraine from under the Black Sea? The US Navy has decades of experience chasing Russian submarines away from sensitive places and the technologies involved in sub hunting would be quite accessible to Ukrainians.
Russian submarines are just about the only threat the Black Sea Fleet has left, and all they do anymore is throw cruise missiles at cities. Something explains that behavior. I expect it is Top Secret and involves sonar bouys as well as strategic intelligence assets, but who knows.
Now that we have confirmation of the intelligence relationship, it is possible to ask further questions about the extent of that cooperation. Nor should this be an accusatory process. So far, timely, shared information has empowered a successful Ukrainian defense without NATO firing a shot. We should hope the trend continues. The war cannot be helped; Ukraine is getting the right help, right now.