Air refueling activity is a complex matter, but we do have some simple ratios to understand. One tanker generally supports one plane on any very long mission, while one tanker can support four to six fighter aircraft within one area of operations. Multiply this basic theater ratio by the number of tankers you see in line at Ramon Airport in Israel.
Then multiply that figure by five or six, because Israel’s Channel 14 is reporting that more than 80 American refueling aircraft have deployed to the region in the last 48 hours, as of Sunday. Looking narrowly at my own specialty, two of the new EA-37B Compass Call aircraft appear to be staged at Souda Bay in the eastern Mediterranean, beyond the reach of Iran’s missiles.
Elections explain the timing. President Trump reportedly called Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss an upcoming joint strike effort on the Islamic Republic of Iran. With the final shape of the Knesset majority left to be determined, it appears that Netanyahu will form a unity government. At the same time, mainstream media outlets in the US are hedging their bets on whether Democrats will win control of Congress tomorrow.
Perhaps the voting and the bombing will coincide in the early morning of Wednesday, local time in the Persian Gulf. Perhaps not. All the talk of timing has led to precision timing, whatever the timing, and we can tell that because the balloon is clearly ready to go up.
During the First World War, observation balloons were used to correct the fall of indirect artillery fire on enemy positions. Whenever the enemy put a tethered balloon aloft, soldiers knew enemy artillery fire was imminent. The first air battles developed around the obvious mission of attacking the enemy balloons, necessitating their defense. Fixed-wing pilots also corrected artillery fire from the air using new radio technologies, so of course targeting enemy pilots with radio intelligence and groups of fighters blended into the daily air mission.
Today, Ukraine is still using static and free balloons to fight their war with Russia. Russian troops are lofting balloons to get a 5G signal that can make up for not having a Russian Starlink. I mention all this history to note that the term still applies even in the technology is different, or used differently. All the signs of imminent military operations on Iran are present.
However.
The 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), currently embarked on the USS Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group (USS Makin Island, USS Anchorage, and USS John P. Murtha), is not due to reach the CENTCOM area of operations until late November. The same is true for USS Theodore Roosevelt and her carrier strike group. In military parlance, these are the reserve forces.
This tells us something about the war plan. It has at least two potential phases, and leverages American naval supremacy, potentially with boots going ashore for some time. They do not have to stay, nor do they want to inhabit areas that are subject to insurgent tactics, shore artillery fire, small drones, and so on for a very long time. So far, CENTCOM has not done this. It would be an escalation, intensifying the conflict and potentially increasing the casualties.
