How Much Time Does Putin Have?

And how much leverage will Trump create?

Wars are fundamentally macroeconomic affairs. Think of war machinery as capital investment, while conscription is a form of taxation. Humans have only invented three basic ways to finance and supply wars: inflation, taxes, and debt. Thus, over the long run of history, victory in war has consistently gone to the larger economic alliance, not the bigger empire, or the bigger army, or the bigger gods.

Vladimir Putin has put the entire Russian economy at risk, and Donald Trump has the power to raise those risks in a number of ways, creating leverage to make Putin agree to a genuine peace with Ukraine. Ten days into the second Trump presidency, Putin has only doubled-down on his risks, while Trump has risked nothing, for he already has a great deal of leverage.