Farther, Better, Faster Bomber: Ukraine's War Is Never Over

An update on some themes

“Hrim-2” (lit. “Thunder,” pronounced Grom) is a project of two former Soviet design bureaus in Ukraine, KB Pivdenne and PA Pivdenmash. It has a single-stage, solid-propellant motor, just like your home model rocket kit, which makes it more reliable and safer to store than a liquid-fueled rocket. Designed for wheeled mobility on a transporter erector-launcher (TEL) vehicle, Hrim-2 reportedly packs a very heavy punch with a 300 km/186 mi. range and the speed of a Kinzhal missile, Russia’s air-launched version of the “hypersonic” Iskander-M ground-launched missile.

Its range is in fact limited to comply with the Missile Technology Control Regime, an international treaty. It is to be the export version of Sapsan, which reportedly has at least 500 km/310 mi. of range. Flight time is measured in minutes. It is more or less a natively-produced copy of the Kinzhal, which seems inevitable. After all, Russian bombers have launched hundreds of Kinzhals into Ukraine, providing so many samples, partial or complete, that Ukrainians could glue a few back together like puzzle pieces and launch them back at Moscow. As I argued at the end of 2022, it is only human to do that. If you fling rocks at me, I will pick up the rocks and fling them back at you. (I am sort of kidding. Hrim-2 has been in development since the initial invasion of 2014.)

In June of 2023, I further noted that Ukraine had ramped up its native rocket and missile industry to develop their own deep strike capabilities independent of their more pathetic western partners (looking at you, Jake Sullivan). Last week, President Volodymyr Zelensky told a press conference that Ukraine has “successfully tested its first ballistic missile,” though he did not refer to Hrim-2/Sapsan by name or give any details. Russian military propaganda has claimed successful intercepts of them several times before. This is likely a propaganda ploy to pre-empt their actual appearance in the conflict — and a sign that they do in fact worry Moscow.